KSE-100 Sees Major Drop Post-SBP Rate Hike

The KSE-100 was weak in the days around the SBP’s 26 October decision. Business Recorder reported the index down more than 800 points in the opening minutes of Monday, at about 161,542, and Tribune had it near 161,660 by midday, an intraday range of roughly 161,250 to 162,488. The Friday before, the index had lost more than 1,300 points as fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensified and oil rose. Arif Habib’s head of research, Sana Tawfik, attributed the selling to two things: global weakness on higher oil and caution ahead of the rate decision.

The sectors named in reports were broad: automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas explorers, oil marketing companies, power generation and refineries. Index heavyweights such as HUBCO, OGDC, MARI, PPL, HBL, MEBL and NBP traded lower at the opening.

The SBP then raised the policy rate by 50 bps to 12%, the first rise since April’s 100 bps move. The post-decision close was not retrieved; check it before publishing.

Why Sectors React Differently

Cement and autos (leveraged, demand-sensitive). Higher borrowing costs raise financing expenses for companies and can dampen private credit and investment. After April’s hike, analysts reported in Tribune that cyclicals such as cement would carry the weight of higher rates.

Commercial banks (mixed). The same April analysis suggested banks could see relative support over the medium term, as higher rates typically widen margins on assets. But banks also sold off in recent sessions, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment and sensitivity to government borrowing costs, so the benefit is not automatic.

Oil and gas explorers and oil marketers (oil-linked). These trade on the oil price and on circular-debt and pricing-policy questions as much as on rates. With Brent near $115, the oil story can outweigh the rate story.

Power producers and refineries. Sensitive to financing costs, energy-pricing decisions and the IMF’s push for timely tariff adjustments.

Fertiliser. Reported among the sectors with selling pressure after April’s hike; gas pricing and input costs matter alongside rates.

What the Hike Means for Valuations

Higher policy rates raise the return investors can earn on risk-free assets, which pushes down the price they will pay for equities. With inflation at 10.26% in September and a policy rate of 12%, the real return on fixed income is modestly positive. That competes with equities for capital, particularly after a strong multi-year run in the index.

Scenarios for the Next Few Weeks

1. Oil retreats on a Qatari deal: inflation fears ease, and the market could recover some of the loss. The reply from Iran is due by the end of the week.
2. Stalemate: headline-driven trading with sector rotation based on oil sensitivity.
3. Escalation or another hike on 14 December: pressure on cyclicals and leveraged names.

These are scenarios, not forecasts.

What Investors Should Check

• Company debt levels and interest coverage (leveraged names are most exposed).
• Exposure to oil prices and government pricing policy.
• Dividend yield versus T-bill and deposit rates.
• Upcoming earnings season commentary on financing costs.

The PSX sold off ahead of a hike that was widely expected. What matters now is whether oil and the Iran talks ease or worsen the inflation outlook, because that, not Monday’s 50 bps, will decide the 14 December MPC and the market’s direction.