Are America’s Tariffs Here to Stay? One Year Into Trump’s Second Term

One year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the landscape of global trade has undergone a profound transformation. The United States, long the steward of the post-1945 liberal economic order, has pivoted decisively toward a protectionist stance. Tariffs—once deployed selectively—have become a central instrument of economic statecraft, applied broadly to adversaries and allies alike. Average effective tariff rates have risen to levels not seen in over a century, generating substantial federal revenue while prompting retaliatory measures, supply-chain reconfiguration, and heightened geopolitical friction.

Policymakers, researchers, and think tank analysts now confront a pivotal question: are Trump tariffs permanent, or do they represent negotiable leverage that could recede with shifting political or economic pressures? As of mid-January 2026, the evidence points toward entrenchment, though important caveats remain.

Are America’s Tariffs Here to Stay? A Preliminary Assessment

The short answer is yes, in substantial part—with meaningful qualifications. Indicators strongly suggest that many of Trump’s second-term tariffs are likely to endure beyond the current administration:

• Fiscal entrenchment — Tariff revenue has emerged as a significant budgetary resource, with collections exceeding $133 billion under IEEPA-based measures alone through late 2025 .
• Bipartisan acceptance of China-specific measures — Restrictions on Chinese imports enjoy broad support across the U.S. political spectrum and are increasingly viewed as permanent features of national security policy .
• Legal and institutional path dependence — Once imposed under executive authorities like the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), tariffs create domestic constituencies—protected industries and revenue-dependent programs—that resist rollback .
• Geopolitical recalibration — The tariffs signal a lasting shift toward “America First” realism, prioritizing bilateral deals over multilateral rules .

Countervailing risks include ongoing Supreme Court litigation over IEEPA’s scope . What’s striking is how quickly tariffs have moved from campaign rhetoric to structural reality.

The Evolution of Tariffs in Trump’s Second Term

Trump’s second-term trade policy builds on—but dramatically expands—first-term actions. Where Section 301 and Section 232 authorities dominated previously, the administration has leaned heavily on IEEPA to justify sweeping measures .

Legal Foundations and IEEPA Expansion

In early 2025, President Trump invoked IEEPA to declare national emergencies tied to trade deficits, fentanyl inflows, and unfair practices, enabling broad tariff implementation .

Key Tariff Actions by Country and Issue

The administration has calibrated tariffs variably:

Trading Partner/Issue	Initial Rate (2025)	Current Rate (Jan 2026)	Rationale & Status
China	Up to 60-145% on many goods	High rates persist with some adjustments	National security, fentanyl, trade practices; partial deals in place
Canada & Mexico	25% on select goods	Largely moderated after negotiations	Migration and fentanyl; most trade under USMCA exemptions
European Union	Reciprocal + additional layers	Reduced in some sectors post-talks	Trade imbalances
Countries trading with Iran	25% additional	Active secondary measures	Pressure on Iran
Global baseline	10-20% universal/reciprocal	Partial exemptions remain	Persistent deficits

These actions reflect a strategic blend of punishment and leverage .

Economic Impacts: Revenue Gains Versus Broader Costs

The most immediate outcome has been revenue. Customs duties have reached historic highs, with projections of sustained hundreds of billions annually .

Revenue Projections (Selected Estimates)

Source	2025 Actual/Estimate	2026 Projection	Longer-Term
Tax Foundation	$143–200+ billion	Sustained high	$2+ trillion over decade
Reuters/CBP data	~$133–150 billion (IEEPA portion)	Dependent on court ruling	Potential refunds at risk
Brookings	Variable by exemption	Regressive effects noted

Yet costs are nontrivial. Economists note higher consumer prices and regressive impacts .

Geopolitical Consequences: Reshaping Alliances and Global Order

The tariffs have accelerated fragmentation of the rules-based system. Allies are diversifying ties, while adversaries adapt .

The Iran-related secondary tariffs exemplify broader economic coercion .

Key Indicators of Permanence

Several factors favor longevity:

1. Revenue dependence — Hard to forgo sustained fiscal inflows .
2. National security framing — Especially versus China .
3. Domestic winners — Protected sectors investing in capacity .
4. Precedent — Fallback authorities beyond IEEPA .

Potential Counterforces and Risks

Challenges include Supreme Court review .

Implications for the Global Economic Order

Permanent elevated tariffs would cement fragmentation, with higher costs and bifurcated chains .

Policy Recommendations for Stakeholders

• U.S. policymakers — Complement tariffs with industrial incentives.
• Allied governments — Accelerate diversification .
• Corporations — Build resilience.
• Researchers — Study long-term distributional and comparative effects.

In conclusion, while adjustments are likely, the core of Trump’s second-term tariffs appears structurally entrenched. This economic nationalism offers fiscal and strategic payoffs—but substantial risks. Navigating it will shape global governance for decades.

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